September 24, 2026
Central Banks Extend Heavy Buying; China’s Footprint Grows
Gold’s official‑sector bid remained robust through July, with the latest estimates pointing to another solid month of sovereign accumulation and an outsized role for China. A nowcast from Goldman Sachs Research places global central‑bank net purchases at 44 tonnes in July, well above the pre‑2022 monthly average of 17 tonnes. On a three‑month seasonally adjusted basis, the trend is running at 91 tonnes per month.
Within that aggregate, China appears to be a major driver. The research indicates China’s gold buying in July was roughly 75% higher than what was publicly reported, suggesting that headline disclosures may understate the pace of accumulation. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven highlight that these flows continue to underpin the bank’s constructive view on the metal.
Target Framed by Sovereign Demand
On the back of sustained central‑bank demand and China’s larger‑than‑reported purchases, Goldman Sachs maintains a 2026 price target of $4,900 per ounce for gold. The team characterises the balance of risks as tilted to the upside relative to that target. The persistence of buying well above historical norms aligns with the firm’s thesis that sovereign allocations remain a key support for the market.
While monthly figures can be volatile, the current run‑rate meaningfully exceeds the long‑term average that prevailed before 2022. The combination of steady official‑sector intake and structural interest from key emerging markets adds depth to the demand side, even as mine supply and recycling responses tend to adjust more gradually.
What to Watch Next
Two markers will be central to assessing the durability of this trend: the trajectory of undisclosed purchases that later surface in official tallies, and whether the three‑month seasonally adjusted pace can remain near current levels. Any moderation toward historical norms would not erase the cumulative impact of the past two years, but sustained strength would continue to tighten the market balance.
For investors monitoring the macro signals, the central‑bank channel remains the cleanest read on sovereign preferences for reserve diversification. The current data set—44 tonnes in July versus a pre‑2022 average of 17 tonnes, and a three‑month pace near 91 tonnes—keeps that signal pointed in the same direction, with China’s role more prominent than public disclosures alone would imply.
As official institutions continue to source bullion, interest extends to the mechanics of holding metal, from custody arrangements to jurisdictional diversification. Allocated, vaulted ownership is the standard used by central banks and many private holders for title clarity and settlement certainty.
